A simple approach to risk stratification in adult heart transplantation

Objective: While there are numerous reports in the literature of risk facto rs for graft failure after heart transplantation, simple models for risk st ratification are lacking. This study describes a simple method for risk str atification in adult heart transplantation that can be applied when the siz e of a dataset is insufficient for formal regression modelling. Methods: Mu lti-centre prospective cohere study. Fourteen risk factors documented in th e literature as increasing post transplant graft failure were used to formu late a model. Risk factors included in the model were recipient age >50 yea rs, pre-operative ventilatory support, pre-operative circulatory support, > 1 previous sternotomy, pulmonary vascular resistance >2.5 wood units, male with body surface area >2.5 m(2), retransplant, ischaemic time >3.5 h, dono r age >45 years, donor inotropic support >10 mu g/kg per min dopamine, fema le donor, ratio donor/recipient body surface area <0.7, donor with diabetes and history of donor drug abuse. Four risk groups were defined depending o n the number of risk factors present: Low, none; moderate, 1; high, 2 or 3; very high, 4 or more. Graft survival to 30 days was chosen as the primary outcome. The model was tested on 373 adult transplants performed in the UK between April 1995 and December 1996. Results: Twenty eight transplants wer e low risk, 82 moderate, 201 high and 62 very high. The 30-day survival (70 % CI) for the risk groups was low, 97% (93-100), moderate 95% (92-98), high 87% (84-89) and very high 80% (75-83) (P = 0.02). Conclusions: This prelim inary model enables some stratification of heart transplant procedures acco rding to donor and recipient risk profile. Further work will be directed at refining and validating the model. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All righ ts reserved.