Climate change and world food security: a new assessment

Building on previous work quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on global food production have been made for the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and the more recent HadCM3 experime nt (Hulme et al., 1999). The consequences for world food prices and the num ber of people at risk of hunger as defined by the Food and Agriculture Orga nisation(FAO, 1988) have also been assessed. Climate change is expected to increase yields at high and mid-latitudes, and lead to decreases at lower l atitudes. This pattern becomes more pronounced as time progresses. The food system may be expected to accommodate such regional variations at the glob al level, with production, prices and the risk of hunger being relatively u naffected by the additional stress of climate change. By the 2080s the addi tional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is about 80 million people ( +/- 10 million depending on which of the four HadCM2 ense mble members is selected). However, some regions (particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics) will be adversely affected. A particular example is Afr ica, which is expected to experience marked reductions in yield, decreases in production, and increases in the risk of hunger as a result of climate c hange. The continent can expect to have between 55 and 65 million extra peo ple at risk of hunger by the 2080s under the HadCM2 climate scenario. Under the HadCM3 climate scenario the effect is even more severe? producing an e stimated additional 70 + million people at risk of hunger in Africa. (C) 19 99 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.