Covariates of cannabis use progression in a representative population sample of adolescents: a prospective examination of vulnerabilitly and risk factors

Aims/design. This study reports findings concerning risk factors for first, "repeated" and "regular" use of cannabis in respondents (N = 1228) who wer e aged 14-17 years at the outset (i.e. at "baseline") as part of a longitud inal prospective community study (EDSP). Risk factors were assessed at base line or by separate interviews with the respondents' parents. Cumulative li fe-time cannabis use was the main outcome measure in this study-assessed by information from both the baseline and the follow-up investigation at an a verage of 19.7 months later. A cumulative logistic regression model was use d to estimate associations. Findings. Using seven of a total of 25 variable s examined, the final model classified 72.1% of respondents correctly. Fami ly history of substance use disorders, self-esteem and competence, uncondit ional commitment to not using drugs, immediate availability of drugs, peer group drug use and previous history of nicotine dependence and alcohol use disorders all contributed significantly to the final model, predicting the progression to cannabis use from "no use", to "one time only", "repeated us e", and "regular use". Conclusion. In addition to well-documented risk fact ors such as peer group pressure, availability, low self-esteem and competen ce, findings suggest that family history and prior experiences with legal d rugs play a significant role in the early development of cannabis consumpti on in teenagers.