The impact of the anomalous weather of 1995 on the UK economy

This study assesses selected impacts on tertiary activities of the anomalou sly hot summer of 1995 and warm period from November 1994 through October 1 995 in the U.K. Over this period, the mean Central England temperature was 1.6 degrees C above the 1961-1990 normal, representing the highest mean 12- month temperature since the start of the Central England temperature record in 1659. The study is distinguished by its breadth of coverage, for it inc ludes tertiary sectors and activities. Although impacts in tertiary activit ies are often not included in assessments of the potential impacts of clima tic change, many of these activities are very important to the U.K. economy , and therefore even a small perturbation in output due to a weather extrem e can have significant implications for the economy as a whole. The activit ies and sectors studied include energy consumption, retailing and manufactu ring, construction and buildings, tourism, health, human behaviour, and fir es. Both negative and positive impacts were incurred within most sectors. N et positive impacts (to the general public) were found convincingly for ene rgy consumption and health, and clear negative impacts for buildings insura nce and fires. Sectors which show clear differences in their response to wi nter and summer warm anomalies are energy consumption, tourism and health ( greater sensitivity to winter anomalies) and buildings insurance and fires (greater sensitivity to summer anomalies). Changes in sensitivity to climat e extremes may have occurred over time, and a comparison of impacts of the 1995 anomalous weather with the unusually warm dry period of 1975-1976 is a pproached for several series.