Stochastic representation of fire behavior in a wildland fire protection planning model for California

A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simu lator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Prote ction. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulate d fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making coordinated dr aws from compound distributions characterizing 2 PM fire behavior indices s uch as ROS, then adjusting these draws using diurnal adjustment coefficient s derived from hourly fire weather observations. Statistical examination of historical fire occurrence and predicted behavior data validated CFES2's u se of independent fire occurrence and fire behavior modeling processes.