The impacts of climate on retailing in the UK with particular reference tothe anomalously hot summer of 1995

The impacts on the UK retailing sector of the extreme climate of 1995 are a nalysed in the context of monthly climate conditions in the previous two de cades. Over the period from November 1994 to October 1995, the mean monthly Central England temperature (CET) was 1.6 degrees C above the 1961-1990 no rmal, the highest mean 12-month temperature since the CET records began in 1659. Retail activities are geared towards average conditions and are there fore affected in the short-term by any unexpected change in supply and dema nd. This study focuses on those areas of retailing where the responses to c limate in terms of a change in consumer demand are most likely to be clear: first, clothing and footwear and, second, food and drink. Economic time se ries are extracted from official government publications (1972-1995). Stepw ise multiple regressions are performed to assess the amount of variance in the retail series accounted for by monthly temperature, rainfall and sunshi ne indices. Statistically significant associations are found between retail and climate indices over the 1972-1995 study period, these are generally strongest in winter and spring, and weakest in summer. There is some indication of an in crease in the climate-sensitivity of the retail series in unusually hot yea rs. This may be a function of factors such as: 'just-in-time' supply chains , refrigeration and changes in the trading environment. The anomalous clima te of 1995 has the greatest economic impact on the clothing and footwear ma rket, with extreme temperatures at the end of the summer associated with a decline in the market. An attempt is made to place a monetary value on the 1995 impacts. It is estimated that the clothing and footwear market sustain ed a loss of pound 383 million (1.7% of turnover). However, the extreme cli mate of 1995 brought gains to the beer and wine industries of pound 123 mil lion (0.9% of turnover) and pound 11 million (0.2% of turnover), respective ly, and a gain of approximately pound 25 million (1.8% of turnover) to the fruit and vegetable markets. Copyright (C) 1999 Royal Meteorological Societ y.