Studies examining the value of switching to a variable rate technology (VRT
) fertilizer program assume producers possess perfect soil nitrate informat
ion. In reality, producers estimate soil nitrate levels with soil sampling.
The value of switching to a VRT program depends on the quality of the esti
mates and on how the estimates are used. Larger sample sizes, increased spa
tial correlation, and decreased variability improve the estimates and incre
ase returns. Fertilizing strictly to the estimated field map fails to accou
nt for estimation risk. Returns increase if the soil sample information is
used in a Bayesian fashion to update the soil nitrate beliefs in nonsampled
sites.