Power shifts and problem shifts - The evolution of the power transition research program

This article analyzes the evolution of power transition theory from the per spective: of Lakatos's methodology of scientific research programs. The aut hors reconstruct the development of the power transition research program b y analyzing its hard core of irrefutable assumptions, its negative and posi tive heuristics, and exemplary works contributing to its protective belt of testable auxiliary hypotheses. It is argued that some developments (e.g., Lemke's multiple hierarchy model) constitute progressive problemshifts, but other areas of the research program exhibit signs of degeneration. These i nclude the treatment of the timing and initiation of wars associated with p ower transitions and causal mechanisms driving such wats. Findings show tha t the evolution of the power transition research program has generally been progressive in Lakatosian terms, but its future vitality will require cont inued efforts to explain the above-mentioned theoretical and empirical anom alies in away that is consistent with the hard core of the research program and that generates new testable propositions.