Multiple goals or deterrence - A test of two models in nuclear and nonnuclear alliances

The functions of international alliances are investigated by testing two mo dels of state behavior with data drawn from nuclear and nonnuclear alliance s since 1860. A diversity-of-goals model is based on Morrow's assumption th at states pursue two goals through their foreign policies: autonomy and sec urity. The second is the Olson-Zeckhauser theory that alliances provide a c ollective good to their members. The diversity-of-goals model sees alliance s as mechanisms for states to transfer desired foreign policy goals, so tha t different states join alliances for different reasons. Asymmetrical allia nces are mutually preferred arrangements between or among states where diff erent goals are traded and are more likely to work when punishment of defec tion is credibly threatened. Accordingly, the diversity-of-goals model shou ld find support only in nonnuclear alliances. The Olson-Zeckhauser model sh ould apply more to nuclear alliances. The statistical results support the h ypotheses.