Cc. Langlois et Jpp. Langlois, Behavioral issues of rationality in international interaction - An international appraisal, J CONFL RES, 43(6), 1999, pp. 818-839
The behavioral pointers of rationality discussed by Langlois and Langlois a
re used to scan the World Events Interaction Survey data on U.S.-China and
U.S.-Soviet relations for evidence of rational behavior in the interaction
between states. The null hypothesis that the interaction between states is
not compatible with subgame perfect equilibrium play in all cases examined
is rejected: states react to each other's past moves; if deviations hom equ
ilibrium play are significant in explaining player moves, they determine po
sitive inducement effects; and implied payoff structures reveal a need for
strategic management of the relationship. With payoff structures estimated
to be prisoner's dilemmas for all players, both bilateral relations begin w
ith the widest tolerance of the other's behavioral choice and the adoption
of countervailing strategies. Over time, these nations' strategic interacti
on evolves toward a sharpening of the bounds they envision for their relati
onships.