Import risk analysis: the experience of Italy

The authors propose a contribution to the possible revision of Chapters 1.4 .1. and 1.4.2. of the International Animal Health Code (Code) of the Office International des Epizooties (OIE). In particular, data are presented to i llustrate some of the inadequacies of both the rationale and the results of the method for risk assessment reported in the Code. The method suggested by the Code for risk assessment is based on the calculation of the 'probabi lity of the occurrence of at least one outbreak' of a given disease followi ng the importation of a given quantity of either live animals or animal pro ducts (unrestricted risk estimate). This is usually undertaken when dealing with rare events. For a country such as Italy, this method may not be particularly useful as the frequency of disease outbreaks is what should be estimated, so as to pr ovide decision makers with appropriate and relevant information. Practical use of risk information generated by the use of the OIE risk assessment met hod for swine vesicular disease (SVD) would have encouraged the Chief Veter inary Officer of Ita ly to pro hi bit all im ports of swine from the Nether lands a nd Belgium for at least two years in the early 1990s, with the cons equential heavy economic losses for both Italy and the exporting countries. On the contrary, the number of actual outbreaks of the disease due to dire ct imports of swine from Member States of the European Union (EU), which oc curred in Italy in 1992, 1993 and 1994 was very low (two to five outbreaks due to direct imports of swine from the Netherlands and one to two from Bel gium). An example of a method for assessing the risks associated with high volumes of trade in commodities is also described. This method is based on the Mon te Carlo simulation and provides the information required to evaluate the c osts of the strategies compared. The method can be used to predict the numb er of outbreaks which are likely to occur following importation and enables a comparison to be made of alternative safeguards. This would lead to the selection of the most cost-effective one. The comparison is conducted using risk curves and allows a quantitative evaluation and comparison to be made of various scenarios, varying from an absence of safeguards to combination s of various safeguards.