A decision theory perspective on the disposal of high-level radioactive waste

In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The pr obabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome pred iction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the informatio n gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain r epository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusio ns: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characte rizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an att ractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability o f the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of "waste management" should be adopted, as opposed to "waste disposal," as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste pro blem.