Early intervention strategies in infant wheezing will be dependent on the a
bility to predict persistence of disease. We undertook a prospective longit
udinal study to determine which factors might be predictive for the persist
ence of wheeze. We examined a group of 107 children 3 to 36 mo of age with
at least one atopic parent. Children were recruited within 12 wk of first w
heeze. Factors assessed included: personal atopy (IgE > 1 SD above age-rela
ted normal and/or eczema and/or positive skin tests); parental atopy; numbe
r of siblings; age at first wheeze; sex; serum-soluble IL-2R; proliferation
of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) to beta-lactoglobulin and to
D. pteronyssinus; production of IFN-gamma on stimulation of PBMC with beta-
lactoglobulin and with D. pteronyssinus. A positive clinical outcome (child
requiring prophylactic antiasthma treatment after 1 yr) was observed in 53
(49.5%) children. Predictor variables were assessed by univariate and mult
ivariate logistic regression. Wheeze was more likely to be persistent in ol
der, atopic children with biparental atopy. The model offering best predict
ion of persistent wheeze with least risk of including asymptomatic subjects
was age at presentation + slL-2R. Trials of early intervention strategies
using a logistic regression equation based on this model for patient recrui
tment can now be designed.