Db. Kirk-davidoff et al., The effect of climate change on ozone depletion through changes in stratospheric water vapour, NATURE, 402(6760), 1999, pp. 399-401
Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone deplet
ion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2
concentrations(1,2). But climate change may additionally influence Arctic o
zone depletion through changes in the water vapour cycle. Here we investiga
te this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause tempera
tures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional
radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratosphe
ric water vapour budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the
results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased
water vapour(3). Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-
gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, res
ulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapour a
nd hence an increased transport of water vapour from the troposphere to the
stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapour concentration in the polar region
s determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reacti
ons on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone
depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results in
dicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends
critically on water vapour variations which are forced by sea surface temp
erature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not b
een taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under cli
mate change conditions.