The role of relative cohort size and relative income in the demographic transition

This paper summarizes the results of other analyses by the author with rega rd to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male rela tive income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economic growth, and in turn influencing fertility in t he currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that th ese same effects appear to have been operating in all of the one hundred-od d nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Param eter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by t he United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are used to simulate the effects on fertility of migration from Third to First World countries. This exercise suggests that we get the best of all possible outcomes with migration: popu lation is reduced in "overcrowded" Third World nations, total world populat ion growth is substantially reduced, and scores of children are given the o pportunity of growing up with all the educational and health advantages of U.S. residents.