Ag. Bobba et al., Sensitivity of hydrological variables in the Northeast Pond River watershed, Newfoundland, Canada, due to atmospheric change, WATER RE MA, 13(3), 1999, pp. 171-188
Watershed runoff modelling techniques were developed and applied for assess
ing climatic impacts, and tested for a watershed in the Northeast Pond Rive
r basin using atmospheric-change scenarios from a series of hypothetical sc
enarios. Results of this research strongly suggest that possible changes in
temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas
concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude o
f runoff and soil moisture in important natural resources areas. Of particu
lar importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that a
re consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in
summer soil moisture range from 10 to 50% for different scenarios. In addi
tion, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff - specifical
ly dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. Thes
e hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socio
-economic difficulties and they will have significant implications for futu
re water-resource planning and management.