Climate change, agriculture, and developing countries: Does adaptation matter?

Because most developing countries depend heavily on agriculture, the effect s of global warming on productive croplands are likely to threaten both the welfare of the population and the economic development of the countries. T ropical regions in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to pote ntial damage from environmental changes because the poor soils that cover l arge areas of these regions already have made much of the land unusable for agriculture. Although agronomic simulation models predict that higher temperatures will reduce grain yields as the cool wheat-growing areas get warmer they have no t examined the possibility that farmers will adapt by making production dec isions that are in their own best interests. A recent set of models examine s cross-sectional evidence from India and Brazil and finds that even though the agricultural sector is sensitive to climate, individual farmers no tak e local climates into account, and their ability to do so will help mitigat e the impacts of global warming.