A framework for evaluating the effects of human factors on wildlife habitat: the case of giant pandas

To address the complex interactions between humans and wildlife habitat, we developed a conceptual framework that links human factors with forested la ndscapes and wildlife habitat. All the components in the framework are inte grated into systems models that analyze the effects of human factors and pr oject how wildlife habitat would change under different policy scenarios. A s a case study, we applied this framework to the Wolong Nature Reserve in S ichuan Province (southwestern China), the largest home of the giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca). We collected ecological and socioeconomic data wit h a combination of various methods (field observations, aerial photographs, government documents and statistics, interviews, and household surveys) an d employed geographic information systems and systems modeling to analyze a nd integrate the data sources. Human population size has increased by 66% a nd the number of households, in the reserve has increased by 115% since 197 5, when the reserve was established. During the same period, the quality an d quantity of the giant panda habitat dramatically decreased because of inc reasing human activities such as fuelwood collection. Systems modeling pred icted that under the status quo, human population in the reserve would cont inue to grow and cause more destruction of the remaining panda habitat, whe reas reducing human birth rates and increasing human emigration rates would lower human population size and alleviate human impacts on the panda habit at. Furthermore, our simulations and surveys suggested that policies encour aging the emigration of young people would be more effective and feasible t han relocating older people in reducing human population size and conservin g giant panda habitat in the reserve.