Though disinflation continued in the second quarter of 1999, its pace was s
ignificantly slower compared to previous periods. Inflation has gradually s
tabilized at low levels. In June, net inflation (y-o-y) was 0.6%, 0.2 perce
ntage points lower than in Q1 1999, while the CPI (y-o-y) fell from 2.5% to
2.2%. The slowing down of disinflation was mainly due to [the effects of]
higher commodity prices; the depreciation of currency from Q1 1999 was also
a contributing factor.
The CNB's latest rolling-event forecast points to a net inflation of betwee
n 2.3-4.8% in June 2000, while its fixed-event forecast indicates a net inf
lation of 1.3-2.3% in December 1999. The inflation outlook implies fulfillm
ent of the lower limit of the inflation target in 2000.