The interpretation of "likely" depends on the context, but "70%" is 70% - Right? The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty

Past research has demonstrated that interpretations of vague verbal forecas ts (e.g., "likely") differ as a function of the context to which they refer Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrate that precise numeric forecasts (e.g.,'"70% ") are also susceptible to such context effects. Participants read descript ions of target events and experts' numeric forecasts. Perceptions of certai nty, expressed on nonnumeric: scales, differed as a function of context man ipulations. The results of Experiments 3a, 3b, and 4 indicate that these ef fects can be mediated by perceptions of an event's representativeness indep endently of subjective base rates. The results are also consistent with the idea that two types of semi-independent processing-associative and rule ba sed-can have important influences on perceptions of certainty. Implications of this dic;tinction for research on judgments and decisions under uncerta inty are discussed.