Potato paradoxes

Price and quantity data prove that Irish potatoes in the 1840s were not Gif fen goods. Intertemporal trade-offs required by the fact that a sizable fra ction of the potato crop is needed for seed crops can produce unusual marke t dynamics. The Irish experience is well described by a normal demand model in which a permanent decline in the productivity of seed potatoes was at f irst mistaken as a transitory crop failure. These mistakes provoked "oversa ving" of seed crop in a population in dire circumstances. With the benefit of hindsight, consumption of seed crop capital was warranted. Erroneous exp ectations of potato productivity by growers delayed necessary agricultural adjustments and contributed to the catastrophe later on.