Real interest rates appear to have risen in virtually all industrialized co
untries in the 1980s and 1990s relative to levels that prevailed in earlier
decades. There is concern that this may reflect higher public debt, which
is crowding out private-sector activity. There has also been increasing int
ernational capital market integration, implying that interest rates in any
country may be sensitive to global fiscal developments. This paper estimate
s the effects of such fiscal developments on real interest rates in nine in
dustrial countries. The results imply that the increase in OECD-wide govern
ment debt since the late 1970s was a major factor in the rise in real inter
est rates.