Toward a sustainable energy regime: A long-wave interpretation of global energy shifts

This analysis adopts a long-wave perspective in order to shed light on the dynamics that led to a global shift away from primary reliance on coal and towards over-reliance on petroleum. It is argued that the interaction of th ree systemic dynamics, those of geopolitical rivalry, commercial competitio n, and social unrest, undermined the nineteenth-century international coal regime and paved the way fur the consolidation of an international petroleu m system in the twentieth century. By examining contemporary patterns of st ate and private investments in a cluster of new energy technologies. as wel l as the growing influence of environmental regulations, it is argued that similar dynamics are beginning to favor a shift rewards a new, more sustain able energy regime in the coming century. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.