Exploring changes in the spatial distribution of livestock in China

China's livestock sector is very dynamic as a consequence of increasing dem ands for animal products. This paper explores the spatial distribution of d ifferent groups of livestock in China. Relations between the spatial patter n of livestock distribution and a large number of socio-economic and biophy sical variables have been derived by correlation and regression analysis. T he thus derived relations are used in a spatially explicit, dynamic simulat ion model to explore near-future changes in land use and livestock distribu tion. A baseline scenario and a scenario with improved management of grassl ands are evaluated. The results indicate that for both scenarios most incre ases in livestock numbers are to be expected in China's agricultural region . (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.