Negative campaign advertising: Demobilizer or mobilizer?

As political campaigns become increasingly adversarial, scholars are giving some much-needed attention to the effect of negative advertising on turnou t In a widely recognized Review article and subsequent book, Ansolabehere a nd his colleagues (1994, 1995) contend that attack advertising drives poten tial voters away from the polls. We dispute the generalizability of this cl aim outside the experimental setting. Using NES survey data as well as aggr egate sources, we subject their research to rigorous real-world testing. Th e survey data directly contradict their findings, yielding no evidence of a turnout disadvantage for those who recollected negative presidential campa ign advertising. In attempting to replicate Ansolabehere et al.'s earlier a ggregate results we uncover quite substantial discrepancies and inconsisten cies in their data set. We conclude that their aggregate study is deeply fl awed and that Ansolabehere et al. exaggerated the demobilization dangers po sed by attack advertising, at least in voters' own context.