CONFLICT-MANAGEMENT OF ENDURING RIVALRIES - THE FREQUENCY, TIMING, AND SHORT-TERM IMPACT OF MEDIATION

In this study, we explore the frequency, timing, and impact of a parti cular form of conflict management-namely, mediation-and we do so in th e dangerous context of international militarized rivalries over the pe riod 1816-1992. We wish to explore how often does mediation actually o ccur in the context of enduring rivalries and understand at what phase mediation efforts are undertaken (if indeed they are made al all). Ar e mediation efforts only made in the most severe rivalries, or are the y attempted in rivalries before they become enduring? At what stage in the rivalry is mediation attempted, and how does this fit in with the prescriptions derived from the extensive literature on timing and med iation success? Beyond a description of mediation in the context of ri valries, we wish to assess its impact on the short-term dynamics of ri valries. Do mediation efforts make a difference? Do they help to postp one the onset of violence, lessen conflict severity, or prevent a war? The results indicated that enduring rivalries experience more mediati on efforts than other conflicts. Compared to other less intense rivalr ies, enduring ones were up to ten times more likely to involve a third party (more than a majority of enduring rivalries actually had at lea st one mediation effort), and the average number of mediation attempts was significantly greater in the enduring rivalry context. Contrary t o some prescriptions, we did not find mediation efforts to occur neces sarily later in rivalries; mediations generally occurred at various st ages of the rivalry process, regardless of whether it was a isolated, proto, or enduring rivalry. Overall, we found mediation attempts to ha ve relatively little impact on the behavior of states in rivalries. Th ey did not apparently influence the likelihood of subsequent war betwe en rivals nor the level of severity for conflict that fell short of th e war threshold. The most notable effects of mediation were found in t heir relationship to dispute ''waiting times'' or the interval from on e dispute to the next. We found that positive mediation outcomes could , in some rivalries, lead to a delay in the onset of new militarized c onflict, but the effect was modest. As anticipated, mediation attempts occurring in the latter stages of a rivalry did increase waiting time s, but we judge this relationship to be spurious given the basic trend in rivalries toward greater time between disputes as rivalries mature .