Land use change under conditions of high population pressure: the case of Java

A long history of increases in population pressure in Java has caused agric ultural land use to expand and intensify. More recent land use changes caus ed the conversion of prime agricultural land into residential and industria l area. Results of a dynamic, regional-scale, land use change model are pre sented, defining the spatial distribution of these land use changes. The mo del is based on multi-scale modelling of the relations between land use and socio-economic and biophysical determinants. Historical validation showed that the model can adequately simulate the pattern of land use change. Futu re patterns of land use change between 1994 and 2010 are simulated assuming further urbanization. The results suggest that most intensive land use cha nges will occur in Java's lowland areas. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.