Aridification - climate change in south-eastern Europe

Climatic change in SE Europe can be characterized by the term aridification , which means increasing semi-aridity, manifested in an increase of mean an nual temperature and at the same time in a decrease in the yearly precipita tion. The paper deals with research results obtained within the framework o f the MEDALUS II project (funded by the Commission of the European Communit ies). The project had the following objectives: (i) Assessment of the impact of global change on the climate of the investi gated area, including possible future climates. (ii) Physical processes of aridification, including studies of groundwater level change, soil moisture profile dynamics, soil development, vegetation change and soil erosion. (iii) Land use change, involving research on present land use and suggestio ns for the future. Various methods were applied with respect to the different research objecti ves. (i) Statistical analysis of climatic oscillations and computer runs of clim atic scenarios, (ii) Analysis of ground water data, mapping and analysis of soils and veget ation, assessment of present and future soil, and (iii) Land capability assessment through ranking environmental conditions a ccording to the demands of the most widely grown arable crops in Hungary. According to our results i) the average annual warming during the last 110 years was +0.0105 degrees C, and precipitation decreased by 0.917 mm/year; ii) a decline of -2 to -4 m in the annual mean groundwater level can be det ected in the most sensitive areas, with gradual lowering of the water table in alkali ponds; complete desiccation of some of them severs the direct co ntact between groundwater and salt-affected soils, the solonchak soil dynam ics cease, helophile and hygrophile plant associations disappear, and (C) 1 999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.