Hj. Simpson et Dc. Colodner, Arizona precipitation response to the Southern Oscillation: A potential water management tool, WATER RES R, 35(12), 1999, pp. 3761-3769
As demand for water in the southwestern United States rises during the next
century due to growing population pressure on limited water resources will
intensify. Interannual variations in precipitation P are large throughout
Arizona (AZ), and known to be influenced by the global-scale El Nino-Southe
rn Oscillation (ENSO). Mean monthly P was compiled in each of seven AZ clim
ate divisions for composites of 28 EI Nino and 23 La Nina years (1895-1994)
, using 6-month (June-November) mean values of the Southern Oscillation Ind
ex (SOI) to assign ENSO phase. Autumn, late winter and spring months in all
AZ divisions averaged >50% higher P during El Nino than La Nina years. Man
agement practices related to timing and relative proportions of surface wat
er and groundwater withdrawals, based in part on ENSO conditions, are clear
ly feasible in this region. Precipitation data from the central highlands o
f AZ (NE of Phoenix) indicate decadal-scale trends in linear regression cor
relation of autumn through spring P as a function of SOI. These trends incl
ude higher P than the long-term mean since about 1960 for a given value of
SOI.