A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever outbreaks: principles and outcomes

A model is presented aimed at a financial analysis of a Classical Swine Fev er outbreak. Financial consequences are calculated for affected parties, in cluding governments (EU and national), farms, and related industries in the production chain. The model can be used to calculate the losses of a real outbreak as well as of a simulated one. In this article, the model is appli ed to the 1997/1998 outbreak of Classical Swine Fever in the Netherlands. R esults show that total financial consequences of the outbreak are US $2.3 b illion. Consequential losses for farmers and related industries are US $423 million and US $596 million respectively. Budgetary consequences for gover nments include less than 50% of the total losses calculated by the model. T he model can be adapted easily to suit other diseases and countries. (C) 19 99 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.