The incredible shrinking president and the economy

This paper employs regression analysis to investigate alternative explanati ons of presidential approval ratings. Since perhaps the greatest determinan t, actual performance, is not readily measurable, the analysis is restricte d to the first and fourth month of each term, a period sufficiently short t hat performance might not be expected to be clearly established. Strong emp irical evidence is found to support: (1) the importance of economic conditi ons, especially those projected for the upcoming quarter; (2) a handicap in approval ratings today of about 11 points when compared to 1948; (3) an ad vantage (of about 5 to 13 points) enjoyed by Republican Presidents; and (4) the existence of a honeymoon (of about 6 points) in the first month of a p residential term that dissipates by the fourth month. Perhaps most importan t, strong evidence is found to discount the value of one and four month app roval ratings as an accurate reflection of public evaluation of a President 's abilities or performance. Instead, those ratings are almost entirely exp lained by factors outside the control of the individual Presidents.