COMBINING CROP MODELING WITH ECONOMIC RISK-ANALYSIS FOR THE EVALUATION OF CROP MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

An agro-ecological approach is presented for the evaluation of alterna tive management options for rice production in the light of farmers at titudes towards risk. The approach combined eco-physiological crop gro wth modelling with stochastic dominance theory and is illustrated for a case study of rainfed lowland rice in Victoria, Tarlac Province, the Philippines. The eco-physiological rice growth model ORYZA_W was used to estimate probability distributions of rice yields under different management scenarios. Relatively simple management options were consid ered for soils with different water storage capacities: plant density; seedling age at transplanting; bund height; and puddled soil depth. S tochastic dominance analysis was applied to identify risk-efficient ma nagement options. A critical appraisal of the proposed agro-ecological method for risk-analysis is given and suggestions are made for refine ment and further research. (C) Elsevier Science B.V.