Vmf. Jacomino et De. Fields, A CRITICAL APPROACH TO THE CALIBRATION OF A WATERSHED MODEL, Journal of the american water resources association, 33(1), 1997, pp. 143-154
A complex watershed-scale water quality simulation model, the Hydrolog
ical Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model, was calibrated for a 16
km(2) catchment. The simulation step size was 0.33 hours with predicte
d and recorded hydrologic flows compared on an annual and monthly basi
s during a total calibration period of four years. Unguided numerical
optimization when applied alone did not yield a model parameter set wi
th acceptable predictive capability; instead, it was necessary to appl
y a critical process that included sensitivity analysis, numerical opt
imization, and testing of derived model parameter sets to evaluate the
ir performance for periods other than those for which they were determ
ined. Using this critical calibration process, the model was proven to
have significant predictive capability Numerical optimization is an a
id for model calibration, but it must not be used blindly.