Dr. Anderson et Kp. Burnham, Understanding information criteria for selection among capture-recapture or ring recovery models, BIRD STUDY, 46, 1999, pp. 14-21
We provide background information to allow a heuristic understanding of two
types of criteria used in selecting a model for making inferences from rin
ging data. The first type of criteria (e.g. AIC, AIC(c), QAIC(c) and TIC) a
re estimates of: (relative) Kullback-Leibler information or distance and at
tempt to select a good approximating model for inference, based on the prin
ciple of parsimony. The second type of criteria (e.g. BIC, MDL, HQ) are 'di
mension consistent' in that they attempt to consistently estimate the dimen
sion of the true model. These latter criteria assume that a hue model exist
s, that if is in the set of candidate models and that the goal of model sel
ection is to find the true model, which in turn requires that the sample si
ze is very large. The Kullback-Leibler based criteria do not assume a true
model exists, let alone that if is in the set of models being considered. B
ased on a review of these criteria, we recommend use of criteria that are b
ased on Kullback-Leibler information in the biological sciences.