The probability that a dose of ionizing radiation kills a cell is about 10,
000 times the probability that the cell will be transformed to malignancy.
On the other hand, the number of cells killed required to significantly imp
act health is about 10,000 times the number that must be transformed to cau
se a late malignancy. If these two risks, cell killing and malignant transf
ormation, are about equal, then the risk that occurs during a mission is mo
re significant than the risk that occurs after a mission. The latent period
for acute irradiation effects (cell killing) is about 2-4 weeks; the laten
t period for malignancy is 10-20 years. If these statements are approximate
ly true, then the impact of cell killing on health in the low-gravity envir
onment of space flight should be examined to establish an estimate of risk.
The objective of this study is to synthesize data and conclusions from thr
ee areas of space biology and environmental health to arrive at rational ri
sk assessment for radiations received by spacecraft crews: (1) the increase
d physiological demands of the space flight environment; (2) the effects of
the space flight environment on physiological systems; and (3) the effects
of radiation on physiological systems. One physiological system has been c
hosen: the immune response and its components, consisting of myeloid and ly
mphoid proliferative cell compartments. Best-case and worst-case scenarios
are considered. In the worst case, a doubling of immune-function demand, ac
companied by a halving of immune capacity, would reduce the endangering dos
e to a crew member to around 1 Gy. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B
.V. All rights reserved.