Predicting the response to recombinant human growth hormone in Turner syndrome: KIGS models

A mathematical model fur predicting the growth response in patients with Tu rner syndrome who received growth hormone (GH) therapy was developed by ana lysing data from KIGS, the Pharmacia & Upjohn International Growth Database . A model fur year I of GM therapy explained 46% of the variability of the growth response, with GH dose being the most important of the predictors of height velocity. In years 2-4 of therapy, height velocity during the previ ous year was the most important predictor, suggesting that an individual's initial response to GH may determine the height outcome of treatment. Addit ional predictors of height velocity in years 1-4 of GH therapy included age (negative), weight SDS and additional treatment with oxandrolone. The pred ictions in all 4 years were highly accurate, as indicated by the low error SDs. However, relatively low predictive power (R) during years 2-4 of treat ment suggests the models are missing other parameters that would explain mo re of the variability of the growth response. These growth prediction model s could help clinicians to design individualized treatment regimens, provid e realistic expectations of therapy outcomes, and adjust treatment on the b asis of detected differences between observed and predicted height velociti es.