A fuzzy-based approach for generation system reliability evaluation

A new method for calculating generation system reliability using fuzzy math ematics is presented here. In reliability evaluation of power systems, a me mbership function can be provided to represent the uncertainties and inaccu racies in the failure rates and repair rates of generating units. The basic unit addition recursive algorithm is modified to represent these uncertain ties along with uncertainties in system load as fuzzy data. Loads are repre sented as clusters to overcome the difficulty of large computational time r equirements. A computer program has been developed in C language to include all aforementioned factors. The program was tested with the IEEE Reliabili ty Test System on an IBM RS/6000 workstation. Several cases were analyzed a nd results are presented. The algorithm developed computes reliability indi ces such as loss of load probability (LOLP) and the expected unserved energ y (EWE) which are viewed as possibility distributions. (C) 2000 Published b y Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.