H. Skovgard et al., Simulation model of the Mediterranean flour moth (Lepidoptera : Pyralidae)in Danish flour mills, ENV ENTOMOL, 28(6), 1999, pp. 1060-1066
The Mediterranean flour moth, Ephestia kuehniella Zeller, is a severe pest
in Danish flour mills and was controlled by the use of methyl bromide until
its ban in 1998. As a basis for exploring alternative control options, we
developed a distributed-delay simulation model of flour moth population dyn
amics in the mills. parameters for the temperature-dependent development of
egg, larvae, and pupae and the lifespan and fecundity of female moths were
obtained from published data. The model was validated against 3 yr of pher
omone trap catches of male moths in a Danish mill. The overall phenology of
the flour moth population was well simulated and was found to be determine
d largely by mill temperature and the seasonality of diapausing larvae. Bas
ed on the model it was estimated that the moth realizes only 1-3% of its re
productive potential from one year to the next. Reduced fecundity and juven
ile mortality are the most likely regulating mechanisms. Model simulations
based on historical weather data suggest that the increased temperature ins
ide the mill drives the regular moth outbreaks, and that if mills were cool
ed to outdoor temperatures, the moth would become an outbreak pest less fre
quently.