Group size, turnout, and political alignments and the development of US party coalitions, 1960-1992

We propose an approach for analysing trends in the contributions of social groups to electoral coalitions, and apply this approach to an analysis of t he impact of changes in the race, religion, class, and gender cleavages on coalitions in U.S. Presidential elections between 1960 and 1992. We improve on existing studies of party coalitions by developing a multivariate model that measures group-specific political alignments while also correcting fo r changes in group size and turnout rates. Our analyses show that there hav e been significant changes in the contributions of different social groups to major party coalitions: the Democrats now receive more votes from profes sionals (and to a lesser extent, managers), blacks, and non-religious perso ns, and fewer votes from working-class voters; the Republican coalition has gained among managers (and to a lesser extent, professionals), while losin g out significantly among liberal Protestants, blacks, and non-working vote rs. The analyses provide evidence of a slight convergence amidst a larger p attern of enduring group-based differences within the Democratic and Republ ican coalitions. The approach developed here can readily be extended to stu dy electoral coalitions in other national contexts.