Eighty-seven patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined signi
ficance (MGUS) were followed for a period of 1-20 years, median 91 mon
ths. Transformation to multiple myeloma occurred in 14 patients of who
m seven died as a consequence of the disease. There were 13 unrelated
deaths. The actuarial probability of survival was 80% at 10 years and
44% at 15 gears and the probabilities of malignant conversion for the
same periods were 17% and 30% respectively. The most significant facto
r influencing the probability of malignant conversion was the increase
of monoclonal protein above the level of 30 g/l during the observatio
n period (P<0.001), followed by an increase of M-protein to more than
50% above the baseline level (P=0.02) and a decreased level of uninvol
ved immunoglobulins (P=0.054).