How climate uncertainty should be included in Great Lakes management: Modeling workshop results

In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In p articular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods coul d be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulatio n modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussi ons. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants bef ore and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great L akes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-f riendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for la rge public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the ease study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the o ther hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees becau se they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficu lt to understand and subject to manipulation.