Great Lakes water resources: Climate change impact analysis with transientGCM scenarios

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted an assessment of Great Lakes wat er resources impacts under transient climate change scenarios. The integrat ed model linked empirical regional climate downscaling, hydrologic and hydr aulic models, and water resource use sub-models. The water resource uses in clude hydropower, navigation, shoreline damages, and wetland area. The stud y is unique in that both steady-state 2xCO(2) and transient global circulat ion model (GCM) scenarios were used and compared to each other. The results are consistent with other impact studies in that high scatter in regional climate among the GCM scenarios lead to high uncertainty in impacts. Nevert heless, the transient scenarios show that in the near-term (approximately 2 0 years) significant changes could occur. This result only adds to the urge ncy of creating more flexible and robust management of water resources uses .