Background. Both antigen-dependent (immunologic) and non-antigen-dependent
(nonimmunologic) factors have been implicated in long-term renal allograft
loss, Differentiating between these two factors is important because preven
tion strategies differ.
Methods. To isolate the importance of these 2 factors, we studied long-term
actuarial graft survival in a cohort of adult kidney recipients who underw
ent transplants at a single institution between January 1, 1984 and October
31, 1998. Excluded were recipients with graft, loss as a result of death w
ith function, technical failure, primary nonfunction, and recurrent disease
, leaving 1587 recipients (757 cadaver [CAD], 830 living donor [LD]) who wo
uld be at risk for graft loss secondary to both immunologic and nonimmunolo
gic factors. These recipients were analyzed in the following 2 groups: thos
e treated for a previous episode of acute rejection (AR) (Group 1; n=588; 3
28 CAD, 260 LD) and those with no AR (Group 2: n=999; 429 CAD, 570 LD). Act
uarial graft survival and causes of graft loss were determined for each gro
up, Presumably, graft loss in Group 1 would be caused by immunologic and no
nimmunologic factors; graft loss in Group 2 would be caused primarily by no
nimmunologic factors.
Results. The 10-year graft survival rate (censored for death with function,
technical failure, primary nonfunction, and recurrent disease) in Group 2
was 91%. In contrast, the 10-year graft survival rate in Group 1 was 45% (P
<0.001 vs. Group 2), Causes of graft loss in Group 2 were chronic rejection
in 1.8% (3.0% CAD, 0.9% LD), de novo disease, 0.4%; sepsis, 0.2%; disconti
nuation of immunosuppressive therapy, 0.3%; and unknown, 0.6%. In contrast,
23.8% (29.9% CAD, 16.2% LD) of recipients in Group 1 had graft loss caused
by chronic rejection (P=0.001 vs. Group 2).
Conclusions. This very low incidence of chronic rejection in recipients wit
hout previous AR suggests that immunologic factors are the main determinant
s of long-term kidney transplant outcome; nonimmunologic factors in isolati
on may have only a minimal impact on long-term graft survival.