PREDICTION OF YOUNG-ADULT BLOOD-PRESSURE FROM CHILDHOOD BLOOD-PRESSURE, HEIGHT, AND WEIGHT

Citation
Nr. Cook et al., PREDICTION OF YOUNG-ADULT BLOOD-PRESSURE FROM CHILDHOOD BLOOD-PRESSURE, HEIGHT, AND WEIGHT, Journal of clinical epidemiology, 50(5), 1997, pp. 571-579
Citations number
30
Categorie Soggetti
Public, Environmental & Occupation Heath
ISSN journal
08954356
Volume
50
Issue
5
Year of publication
1997
Pages
571 - 579
Database
ISI
SICI code
0895-4356(1997)50:5<571:POYBFC>2.0.ZU;2-V
Abstract
To assess the ability of childhood blood pressure, height, and weight to predict young adult blood pressure, the authors examined data obtai ned over multiple visits for four years on 339 children aged 8-18 year s in East Boston, Massachusetts. These subjects were again seen 8-12 y ears later when they were aged 20-26 years. Multivariate regression mo dels were used to predict true blood pressure in young adulthood from observed childhood measurements closest to age 10 (n = 219), adjusting for within-person variability. Without adjusting for childhood blood pressure, childhood height, weight and body mass index were at least m arginally associated with young adult systolic blood pressure in boys and girls, with similar coefficients for each gender. The strongest pr edictor was weight (beta = 0.6 mmHg/10 lbs for girls, and beta = 0.7 m mHg/10 lbs for boys), and height was no longer predictive with weight in the model. With childhood blood pressure included, neither childhoo d height nor weight were predictors of future systolic blood pressure. However, change in height and weight were pre predictors of future sy stolic blood pressure. Weight change was a stronger predictor in girls than boys with beta = 0.9 mmHg/10 lbs. For diastolic blood pressure, height and weight had limited predictive ability in these data. These models, which allow for both between and within-person variability in young adulthood, may be used to estimate the predictive value for futu re high blood pressure of a child's current blood pressure, height and weight, as well as future change in height and weight. These data sug gest that the effects of childhood height and weight on future blood p ressure may be negligible given childhood blood pressure, but that lat er height and weight remain predictive. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.