Nr. Cook et al., PREDICTION OF YOUNG-ADULT BLOOD-PRESSURE FROM CHILDHOOD BLOOD-PRESSURE, HEIGHT, AND WEIGHT, Journal of clinical epidemiology, 50(5), 1997, pp. 571-579
To assess the ability of childhood blood pressure, height, and weight
to predict young adult blood pressure, the authors examined data obtai
ned over multiple visits for four years on 339 children aged 8-18 year
s in East Boston, Massachusetts. These subjects were again seen 8-12 y
ears later when they were aged 20-26 years. Multivariate regression mo
dels were used to predict true blood pressure in young adulthood from
observed childhood measurements closest to age 10 (n = 219), adjusting
for within-person variability. Without adjusting for childhood blood
pressure, childhood height, weight and body mass index were at least m
arginally associated with young adult systolic blood pressure in boys
and girls, with similar coefficients for each gender. The strongest pr
edictor was weight (beta = 0.6 mmHg/10 lbs for girls, and beta = 0.7 m
mHg/10 lbs for boys), and height was no longer predictive with weight
in the model. With childhood blood pressure included, neither childhoo
d height nor weight were predictors of future systolic blood pressure.
However, change in height and weight were pre predictors of future sy
stolic blood pressure. Weight change was a stronger predictor in girls
than boys with beta = 0.9 mmHg/10 lbs. For diastolic blood pressure,
height and weight had limited predictive ability in these data. These
models, which allow for both between and within-person variability in
young adulthood, may be used to estimate the predictive value for futu
re high blood pressure of a child's current blood pressure, height and
weight, as well as future change in height and weight. These data sug
gest that the effects of childhood height and weight on future blood p
ressure may be negligible given childhood blood pressure, but that lat
er height and weight remain predictive. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.