Where should we intervene? Dynamic predictors of sexual offense recidivism

Effective intervention with sexual offenders requires the targeting of appr opriate risk factors. In this study, information on dynamic (changeable) ri sk factors was collected through interviews with community supervision offi cers and file reviews of 208 sexual offense recidivists and 201 nonrecidivi sts. The recidivists were generally considered to have poor social supports , attitudes tolerant of sexual assault, antisocial lifestyles, poor self-ma nagement strategies, and difficulties cooperating with supervision. The ove rall mood of the recidivists and nonrecidivists was similar, but the recidi vists showed increased anger and subjective distress just before reoffendin g. The dynamic risk factors reported by the officers continued to be strong ly associated with recidivism, even after controlling for preexisting diffe rences in static risk factors. The factors identified in the interview data were reflected (to a lesser extent) in the officers' contemporaneous case notes, which suggests that the interview findings cannot be completely attr ibuted to retrospective recall bias.