Cumulative probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy after in-vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection according to a woman's age, subfertility diagnosis and primary or secondary subfertility

The aim of this study was to estimate reliable cumulative probabilities of achieving an ongoing pregnancy after successive in-vitro fertilization or i ntracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) cycles, according to a woman's a ge, subfertility diagnosis and primary or secondary subfertility. Therefore reasons for quitting treatment without achieving an ongoing pregnancy were taken into account. Moreover, we studied whether there were trends in cumu lative probabilities after adjustment for potential confounding effects of the other two characteristics, duration of subfertility, year of first trea tment and reason for quitting treatment. In total, 2984 IVF/ICSI cycles mer e performed in 1315 couples at the University Hospital Nijmegen, The Nether lands, between 1991 and 1998, The 'realistic' cumulative probability of ach ieving an ongoing pregnancy was 54.5% after five consecutive IVF/ICSI cycle s, which was about 10% lower (absolute value) than the optimistic probabili ty calculated by life-table analysis and about 10% higher (absolute value) than the most pessimistic estimate. women of 35 Sears or younger had a high er probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy than the older women, As I CSI is now an option, there were no obvious differences between the subfert ility diagnosis subgroups. The cumulative probability after the first two I VF/ICSI cycles was higher in women with secondary subfertility than in thos e with primary subfertility; this advantage disappeared after further treat ment. These trends remained valid after adjustment for confounding factors.