The respective racial and ethnic diversity of US pediatricians and American children

Background. Much effort has been directed toward increasing the training of physicians from underrepresented minority groups, yet few direct compariso ns have examined the diversity of the racial/ethnic backgrounds of the phys icians relative to the patient populations they serve, either currently or into the future. This has been particularly true in the case of pediatrics, in which little information has emerged regarding the racial/ethnic backgr ounds of pediatricians, yet evidence points to ever-growing diversity in th e US child population. Objective. We embarked on a comparative analysis to examine trends in the r acial and ethnic composition of pediatricians vis-a-vis the patient populat ion they serve, America's infants, children, adolescents, and young adults. Methods. Data on US pediatricians sorted by racial/ethnic group came from A ssociation of American Medical Colleges distribution data and is based on t he cohort of pediatricians graduating from US medical schools between 1983 and 1989 extrapolated to the total number of pediatricians actively practic ing in 1996. Data on the demographic diversity of the US child population c ame from the US Census Bureau. We derived pediatrician-to-child population ratios (PCPRs) specific to racial/ethnic groups to measure comparative dive rsity between and among groups. Results. Our results show that the black PCPR, currently less than one thir d of the white PCPR, will fall from 14.3 pediatricians per 100 000 children in 1996 to 12 by 2025. The Hispanic PCPR will fall from 16.9 in 1996 to 9. 2 in 2025. The American Indian/Alaska Native PCPR will drop from 7.8 in 199 6 to 6.5 by the year 2025. The PCPR specific to the Asian/Pacific Islander group will decline from 52.9 in 1996 to 26.1 in 2025. For whites, the PCPR will increase from 47.8 to 54.2 during this period. For 1996, each of the 5 PCPRs is significantly different from the comparison ratio. The same is tr ue for 2025. For the time trend comparison (between 1996 and 2025), there i s a significant difference for each ratio except for American Indian/Alaska Native. Conclusion. The racial and ethnic makeup of the US child population is curr ently far more diverse than that of the pediatricians who provide their hea lth care services. If child population demographic projections hold true, a nd no substantial shifts transpire in the composition of the pediatric work force, the disparities will increase substantially by the year 2025.