White and nonwhite trends in first birth timing: Comparisons using vital registration and current population surveys

The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depe nding upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registrati on data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Stat istics 1974-1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very la rge and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast usin g these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1 992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980 , 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racia l differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between theses two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Re asons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimat es of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing.