Recent evolutionary models of reproductive partitioning within animal socie
ties (known as 'optimal skew:'concessions' or 'transactional' models) predi
ct that a dominant individual will often yield some fraction of the group's
reproduction to a subordinate as an incentive to stay in the group and hel
p rear the dominant's offspring. These models quantitatively predict how th
e magnitude of the subordinate's 'staying incentive' will vary with the gen
etic relatedness between dominant and subordinate, the overall expected gro
up output and the subordinate's expected output if it breeds solitarily. We
report that these predictions accord remarkably well with the observed rep
roductive partitioning between conesting dominant and subordinate queens in
the social paper wasp Polistes fuscatus. In particular, the theory correct
ly predicts that (i) the dominant's share of reproduction, i.e. the skew, i
ncreases as the colony cycle progresses and (ii) the skew is positively ass
ociated both with the colony's productivity and with the relatedness betwee
n dominant and subordinate. Moreover, aggression between foundresses positi
vely correlated with the skew, as predicted by transactional but not altern
ative tug-of-war models of societal evolution. Thus, our results provide th
e strongest quantitative support yet for a unifying model of social evoluti
on.