Tuberculosis trends in Central Serbia in the period 1956-1996

OBJECTIVE: To estimate tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in Centr al Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Vojvodina provinces) in the period 1956-199 6. DESIGN: The incidence and mortality data of tuberculosis in Central Serbia in the period 1956-1996 were analysed based on the annual reports of the In stitute for Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and the official dat a of the Republic Health Institute. RESULTS: During the period under observation, tuberculosis incidence decrea sed from 324.0 to 34.8/100 000 population, fitting the exponential model (y = 389.066e(-0.0689); F = 847.60; P = 0.000). Mortality rates decreased fro m 76.0 in 1956 to 0.9/100 000 in 1982, Over the whole period (1956-1996) th e decrease in mortality rates fitted the exponential model (y = 66.83c(-0.0 922); F = 150.95; r = 0.000). The increase in mortality rates in the period 1982-1996 fitted cubic model (y = 7.647 - 2.674x + 0.359x(2) - 0.013x(3); F = 12.17; P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Decreasing trends in tuberculosis incidence are the result of g ood control programmes. Changes in mortality trends are related to migratio n from war zones and poor economic conditions which hinder the detection an d treatment of tuberculosis.